Health Situation in the South-East Asia Region, 1998-2000

Demographic Trends

2.1 Population

According to the World Population Prospects, The 2000 Revision, the world population would reach 6.1 billion by mid-2000 with the current annual growth rate of 1.2 per cent. This translates to a net addition of 77 million people per year. Six countries in the world would account for almost 50% of that annual increase, of which three are from the Region. India contributes 21%, while China adds 12%, Pakistan 5%, Nigeria 4%, Bangladesh 4%, and Indonesia 3% respectively. According to the UN projections, the world population would reach 9.3 billion (medium variant) by the year 2050. While the population in the more developed regions is not expected to rise significantly from the present 1.2 billion in the next 50 years, the population of the less developed regions is projected to increase steadily from 4.9 billion in 2000 to 8.2 billion in 2050, assuming that there will be a continuing decline in fertility.

The population in the SEA Region is estimated to be a little over 1.5 billion in 2000 and is projected to increase to over 1.75 billion in the year 2010 (Table 2).

^aCountry reported population estimates
^bFor year 1998. (For year 2000, World Bank's World Development Report 2002 provides a population estimate of 805,000)
^cExcluding Bhutan due to non-availability of estimates
Note: Population figures for 1990 and 2000 are estimates and those for 2010 are medium variant projections made by the Population Division of the United Nations.
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, The 2000 Revision

India reached a landmark in 2000 when its population exceeded one billion. India, according to the 2001 census, stood at 1,027,015,247 comprising 531 million males and 496 million females. India became only the second country in the world after China to have a population of over one billion. It is projected that by 2050 India's population will exceed that of China.

The annual population growth rates in all the countries of the Region, except Nepal, declined between 1985-1990 and 1995-2000. The growth rate in all countries, except Bhutan, is projected to continue the declining trend during the period 2005-2010. The average annual growth rate of population in Bhutan declined only marginally between 1985-1990 (2.66%) and 1995-2000 (2.60%) and is projected to continue at the same level during the 2005-2010 period. Maldives had the highest estimated average annual growth rate (3.02%) among the Member Countries during 1995-2000, while DPR Korea had the lowest rate (0.82%). During the period 2005-2010, it is projected that DPR Korea (0.56%), Myanmar (0.92%), Sri Lanka (0.85%) and Thailand (0.94%) will have annual growth rates of less than 1% (Table 3).

^a Country reports average annual population growth rate of 3.10 for 1995 and 2.50 for 2000
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, The 2000 Revision

The distribution of the world's population in 2000 by WHO region shows that 25% of the world's population will be in the South-East Asia Region (Figure 4). Next to the WHO Western Pacific Region, South-East Asia is the second most densely populated region.

Though the SEA Region covers only 5% of the global land mass, it has a population of over 1.5 billion, which represents 25% of the world population (Figure 5). The pressure on land is greatest in Bangladesh (954 persons per sq km) and Maldives (977 persons per sq km) while it is least in Bhutan (14 persons per sq km) (Table 4).

Fig 4 : Distribution of world population (in thousands), by WHO Region, 2000 (percentages in parentheses

The projected continuing increase in life expectancy and the decline in fertility would result in a faster ageing of the population globally in the next 50 years than during the past half a century. The age structure of the population in the Region shows a similar declining trend in the younger age group (0-14 years) and an increase in the elderly group (65 years and above). The proportion of young persons declined from 36.5% in 1990 to 33.2 in 2000 and is projected to decline to 29.1% in the year 2010 (Table 5). The proportion of elderly meanwhile, increased from 4.1% through 4.8% to 5.6% during the same time period. In the year 2000, Sri Lanka had the smallest proportion (26.3%) of young persons while Maldives (43.7%) had the largest

^aCountry estimate of the population of Bhutan is 658 thousand for 1998

Sources: 1. UN, 1999 Demographic Yearbook
                2. UN, World Population Prospects, The 2000 Revision

Fig 5: Land area and population of the SEA Region, 2000

proportion. Sri Lanka (6.3%) also had the largest proportion of the elderly while Bangladesh (3.1%) had the smallest proportion.

This change in the age structure of the population is clearly seen in the population pyramids constructed for the years 1975, 2000 and 2025 (Figure 6). The pronounced

Note: Total of percentages for a year may not add up to 100 due to rounding at first decimal digit.
Source: UN, World Population Prospects, The 2000 Revision

Fig 6: Changes in age and sex distribution of the population in the SEA Region, 1975-2025

change in the young age group and a less marked change in the elderly group results in a shape that shows a prominent bulge in the adult age group.

For the last decade or next, only two countries (Myanmar and Thailand) have or will have a sex ratio in favour of females i.e. less males per 100 females. In DPR Korea, the ratio is projected to change in favour of females by 2010. In all the other countries, there were more males than females for all the three periods (Table 6). This was most marked in India (106.5 males per 100 females), and Bangladesh (106.4 males per 100 females). In Indonesia, the proportion of males and that of females is almost equal. The average for the Region has consistently been in favour of males, there being only a very marginal decline from 1990 to 2010. Globally too, the same pattern emerges. Trends in the sex ratio in India and the world for the last five decades are shown in Figure 7.